# ergodic 0.2.1

> Open-source causal AI for Python. ergodic: causal discovery, identification and effect estimation in Python, with tested examples on bundled data. Each link is this release's Markdown source.

For Welt (hosted models, MCP server and Python SDK), see https://welt.ergodic.dev/llms.txt

- [Overview](https://docs.ergodic.dev/v0.2.1/index.md)

## Get started

- [Your first causal effect](https://docs.ergodic.dev/v0.2.1/start.md)
- [Discover in Welt, estimate in ergodic](https://docs.ergodic.dev/v0.2.1/welt.md)
- [Install and extras](https://docs.ergodic.dev/v0.2.1/install.md)

## Discovery

- [Discover a graph](https://docs.ergodic.dev/v0.2.1/discover-a-graph.md)
- [Add domain knowledge](https://docs.ergodic.dev/v0.2.1/domain-knowledge.md)
- [Choose a method and test](https://docs.ergodic.dev/v0.2.1/choose-a-method.md)
- [Check stability with the bootstrap](https://docs.ergodic.dev/v0.2.1/bootstrap-stability.md)
- [Work with edge probabilities](https://docs.ergodic.dev/v0.2.1/edge-probabilities.md)
- [Decode a DAG from edge probabilities](https://docs.ergodic.dev/v0.2.1/decode-a-graph.md)
- [Discover from time series](https://docs.ergodic.dev/v0.2.1/time-series-discovery.md)

## Identification

- [Check whether an effect is identifiable](https://docs.ergodic.dev/v0.2.1/identify-an-effect.md)
- [Find adjustment sets, front-door sets and instruments](https://docs.ergodic.dev/v0.2.1/adjustment-sets.md)
- [Estimate a mediated effect](https://docs.ergodic.dev/v0.2.1/mediation.md)

## Effects

- [Estimate an average effect](https://docs.ergodic.dev/v0.2.1/estimate-average-effect.md)
- [Refute an estimate](https://docs.ergodic.dev/v0.2.1/refute-an-estimate.md)
- [Estimate heterogeneous effects](https://docs.ergodic.dev/v0.2.1/heterogeneous-effects.md)
- [Target a policy](https://docs.ergodic.dev/v0.2.1/target-a-policy.md)
- [Difference-in-differences and event studies](https://docs.ergodic.dev/v0.2.1/difference-in-differences.md)
- [Synthetic control and interrupted time series](https://docs.ergodic.dev/v0.2.1/synthetic-control.md)

## Structural causal models

- [Fit a structural causal model](https://docs.ergodic.dev/v0.2.1/fit-an-scm.md)
- [Simulate interventions and counterfactuals](https://docs.ergodic.dev/v0.2.1/interventions-and-counterfactuals.md)

## Forecasting

- [Forecast with causal drivers](https://docs.ergodic.dev/v0.2.1/forecast-with-drivers.md)
- [Backtest a forecast](https://docs.ergodic.dev/v0.2.1/backtest-a-forecast.md)
- [Reconcile a hierarchy](https://docs.ergodic.dev/v0.2.1/reconcile-a-hierarchy.md)
- [Run scenarios](https://docs.ergodic.dev/v0.2.1/run-scenarios.md)

## Hidden regimes

- [Recover hidden regimes](https://docs.ergodic.dev/v0.2.1/recover-hidden-regimes.md)
- [Certify and calibrate](https://docs.ergodic.dev/v0.2.1/certify-and-calibrate.md)

## Process intelligence

- [Map a process from an event log](https://docs.ergodic.dev/v0.2.1/map-a-process.md)
- [Check conformance and decision points](https://docs.ergodic.dev/v0.2.1/conformance-and-decisions.md)

## Concepts

- [Graphs and edge marks](https://docs.ergodic.dev/v0.2.1/graphs-and-marks.md)
- [Assumptions behind each step](https://docs.ergodic.dev/v0.2.1/assumptions.md)
- [Glossary](https://docs.ergodic.dev/v0.2.1/glossary.md)

## Notebooks

- [Notebooks](https://docs.ergodic.dev/v0.2.1/notebooks.md)

## Reference

- [Python reference](https://docs.ergodic.dev/v0.2.1/reference.md)
- [Causal graphs](https://docs.ergodic.dev/v0.2.1/reference-graph.md)
- [Data](https://docs.ergodic.dev/v0.2.1/reference-data.md)
- [Domain knowledge](https://docs.ergodic.dev/v0.2.1/reference-knowledge.md)
- [Identification](https://docs.ergodic.dev/v0.2.1/reference-identification.md)
- [Discovery](https://docs.ergodic.dev/v0.2.1/reference-discovery.md)
- [Effect estimation](https://docs.ergodic.dev/v0.2.1/reference-inference.md)
- [Process intelligence](https://docs.ergodic.dev/v0.2.1/reference-process.md)
- [Structural causal models](https://docs.ergodic.dev/v0.2.1/reference-scm.md)
- [Forecasting](https://docs.ergodic.dev/v0.2.1/reference-forecast.md)
- [Hidden regimes](https://docs.ergodic.dev/v0.2.1/reference-latent.md)
- [Datasets](https://docs.ergodic.dev/v0.2.1/reference-datasets.md)
- [Welt bridge](https://docs.ergodic.dev/v0.2.1/reference-welt.md)

## Releases

- [Changelog](https://docs.ergodic.dev/v0.2.1/changelog.md)
- [Compatibility with Welt](https://docs.ergodic.dev/v0.2.1/compatibility.md)